Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered a material profitability inflection despite freight recession conditions: gross profit up 10.4% YoY to $672.9M, operating income up 71.1% to $183.8M, and diluted EPS up 369.2% to $1.22; adjusted operating margin expanded 940 bps to 26.8% .
North American Surface Transportation (NAST) improved margin quality and pricing discipline; adjusted gross profit per truckload rose 17% YoY, while truckload shipments fell 6.5% and LTL volume rose 2.5% .
Global Forwarding benefited from elevated ocean/air rates and productivity gains; ocean AGP per shipment +23.5% with shipments +3.5%, air tons +15.5% and AGP/ton +26.0%; segment operating income +129.6% YoY .
2025 guidance reiterated: effective tax rate 18–20% and capex $75–85M; management also guided 2025 personnel expense $1.375–$1.475B and SG&A $575–$625M, reinforcing operating leverage focus .
Estimates context: S&P Global Wall Street consensus data was unavailable at time of request; beats/misses vs consensus could not be verified.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Expanded margins via disciplined pricing and cost procurement: “our dynamic costing and pricing tools…enabled us to…improve our NAST gross profit margin both year-over-year and sequentially” — CEO Dave Bozeman .
Productivity gains are “evergreen”: “we delivered compounded productivity growth of 30% or more in both Global Forwarding and NAST” and “do not expect to give back” — Bozeman .
Forwarding execution amid disruptions: “ocean and air shipments grew each quarter…more than 5% for the full year…decoupled headcount growth from volume growth” — Bozeman .

What Went Wrong

Freight demand remained weak: “prolonged freight recession…market growth in 2024 did not materialize” — Bozeman .
Q4 truckload volumes fell (-6.5% YoY) even as margins improved; total NAST volume -1% YoY .
Red Sea conflict strained capacity and drove ocean rates higher, creating volatility; normalization will take time per management .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)	$4.48	$4.64	$4.18
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$676.5	$723.8	$672.9
Adjusted Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$687.4	$735.3	$684.6
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$1.05	$0.80	$1.22
Adjusted EPS ($USD)	$1.15	$1.28	$1.21
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)	$178.1	$180.1	$183.8
Adjusted Operating Margin %	25.9%	24.5%	26.8%
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin %	15.3%	15.8%	16.4%

YoY context (Q4 vs Q4 2023) — Total revenues -0.9%; gross profits +10.4%; net income +382.1%; diluted EPS +369.2%; adjusted operating margin +940 bps .

Segment breakdown (Adjusted Gross Profit):

Segment AGP ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
NAST	$419.7	$420.7	$403.8
Global Forwarding	$184.1	$234.6	$203.8
All Other & Corporate	$83.7	$80.0	$77.1

Segment operating income:

Segment Op. Income ($USD Millions)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
NAST	$141.1	$148.8	$132.5
Global Forwarding	$41.0	$88.1	$51.8
All Other & Corporate	$(4.0)	$(56.8)	$(0.6)

KPIs by quarter:

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Truckload price/mile (YoY)	-2.0%	+2.5%	+6.0%
Truckload cost/mile (YoY)	-3.5%	-0.5%	+4.0%
Truckload shipments (YoY)	+1.5%	-3.5%	-6.5%
LTL volume (YoY)	+1.5%	+2.5%	+2.5%
Ocean shipments (YoY)	+4.0%	+7.0%	+3.5%
Ocean AGP per shipment (YoY)	+4.5%	+47.0%	+23.5%
Air metric tons (YoY)	+11.0%	+20.0%	+15.5%
Air AGP per metric ton (YoY)	-18.0%	-7.0%	+26.0%
Customs AGP per transaction (YoY)	+6.0%	+7.0%	+14.5%
Customs volume (YoY)	n/a	+6.5%	-2.5%

Estimates vs actuals: S&P Global Wall Street consensus data unavailable at time of request; beats/misses not assessed.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	n/a	18%–20%	New
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2024	18%–20%	Actual 2024: 19.6%	Met range
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	n/a	$75–$85M	New
Capital Expenditures	FY 2024	$75–$85M	Actual 2024: $74.3M	Slightly below
Personnel Expenses	FY 2025	n/a	$1.375–$1.475B (personnel)	New
SG&A Expenses	FY 2025	n/a	$575–$625M; D&A $95–$105M	New
Quarterly Dividend	Q1 2025	n/a	$0.62/share payable 4/1/25	New

Management reiterated operating discipline and leverage; Forwarding rate normalization assumed to return to 2H 2023 levels within 2026 bridge (net ~$10M headwind enterprise) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Operating model discipline	Lean cadence, “fit, fast, focused”; margin expansion priority	Higher AGP yields and operating leverage; 75% increase in adjusted op income	Evergreen productivity; 79% increase in Q4 adjusted op income; margin expansion	Strengthening
Digital brokerage & pricing engines	Algorithmic pricing, human-in-loop; improved yield	Dynamic pricing/costing; faster response to market	Tools enabled sequential NAST margin gains despite rising spot costs	Scaling
SMB focus & cross-selling	Building sales org; vertical-centric solutions	Taking share in contractual; optionality for transactional	Early innings in SMB and One Robinson cross-sell runway	Positive runway
Forwarding & Red Sea	Elevated rates; capacity strain	Elevated rates drove GF results; pull-forward risk	Carriers slow to return to Red Sea/Suez; normalization gradual	Normalization later
Capacity/demand	Oversupply; route guides strong; spot competitive	Capacity exits continue but demand inflection needed	Cass index -3.2% YoY; still prolonged recession	Weak demand persists
Productivity & headcount decoupling	Target +15% NAST, +10% GF per person; decouple headcount	Headcount down ~10%; productivity compounding	Headcount down 9.5% YoY in Q4; automation ~90% of order tenders	Ongoing gains

Management Commentary

“The benefits of these efforts were never more evident than in the significant year-over-year improvement in our fourth quarter financial results.” — CEO Dave Bozeman .
“We delivered compounded productivity growth of 30% or more in both Global Forwarding and NAST…we view our productivity as evergreen improvements that we do not expect to give back.” — Bozeman .
“Our dynamic costing and pricing tools…enabled us to…improve our NAST gross profit margin both year-over-year and sequentially.” — Bozeman .
“Without proprietary technology…we’ve been able to automate more than 10,000 transactions per day…order tenders increased 1,150 bps YoY…now reached nearly 90%.” — Chief Strategy & Innovation Officer Arun Rajan .
“We feel good about the targets we laid out…no pivot or change from Investor Day…we’ll control what we can control.” — CFO Damon Lee .

Q&A Highlights

Balancing margin vs volume: Management prioritizes “quality of volume” and service, with optionality to scale volumes when conditions improve; margin expansion remains the near-term focus .
SMB and cross-selling runway: Early innings across SMB and enterprise cross-sell; “tremendous opportunity…to maximize the value of One Robinson” .
Demand and RFP season: Strong route guide adherence; transactional market highly competitive; Q1 RFPs healthy, but no clear demand uptick yet .
Forwarding normalization: Ocean rates expected to normalize back to 2H 2023 levels; net ~$10M enterprise headwind in 2026 bridge already contemplated .
Red Sea/Suez: Carriers cautious; return to normal patterns will be gradual; Robinson monitoring and adjusting to serve customers .

Estimates Context

S&P Global Wall Street consensus (EPS and revenue) for Q4 2024 was unavailable at time of request due to provider limit; as a result, we cannot assess beats/misses vs consensus in this report. Values retrieved from S&P Global would normally be provided with an asterisk and “Values retrieved from S&P Global” disclaimer.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Margin quality improved materially; adjusted operating margin rose to 26.8% in Q4 (up 940 bps YoY), supported by pricing discipline and cost of hire advantages — a key near-term valuation support .
Forwarding remains a positive contributor amid ocean rate volatility, while management has already embedded rate normalization assumptions into its multi‑year bridge — limiting downside surprise risk .
Productivity improvements are demonstrably “evergreen,” decoupling headcount from volume and supporting operating leverage into a recovery; automation of critical order workflows is near 90% .
NAST truckload volumes remain soft (-6.5% YoY), but AGP per shipment and margins are up; as demand returns, Robinson’s tools and discipline should enable share capture without sacrificing margin thresholds .
2025 expense guardrails (personnel and SG&A) and tax/capex guidance suggest continued operating discipline and cash generation visibility; dividend sustained at $0.62/share .
Near-term catalysts: any demand inflection (contractual and transactional), Red Sea normalization timing, and continued AGP/margin expansion trajectory; medium‑term, execution against 2026 targets and SMB/cross‑sell scaling .

C. H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (CHRW)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary